Every week, the Islamic State releases its magazine, al-Naba, offering significant insights into the group’s activities, which can contribute to the risk assessment of future operations, violent attacks, and propaganda campaigns. 

Through the analysis of the weekly issue of the al-Naba newsletter, the official media product of the Islamic State, one can gauge the operational threat posed by the jihadist organization. The most recent issue, number 339, covers the week of Shawwal 1443 (May 14th, 2022 – May 19th, 2022). 

In terms of propaganda and operations, al-Naba typically consolidates claims published daily during the preceding week and provides additional details, both written and photographic. Issue 339 reports operations in Iraq, Nigeria, Syria, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Egypt. The Islamic State claims a total of 84 casualties, with approximately a dozen military vehicles destroyed across these regions. 

A detailed breakdown of the operations reveals the Islamic State’s use of two primary strategies: “war of attrition” and “economic warfare.” Notable instances include attacks in Iraq targeting various forces, economic warfare strategies involving the destruction of infrastructure, and operations in Syria, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Nigeria, and Egypt. 

Issue 412 analysis also indicates a potential decrease in the organization’s operations compared to previous issues, prompting considerations of organizational issues or increased counterterrorism efforts. However, caution is advised against drawing conclusions about the strength of the organization solely based on short-term fluctuations, as historical trends show periodic decreases in operations. 

Despite any potential decline, the Islamic State maintains a stable presence in Iraq, Syria, AfPak (Afghanistan-Pakistan), Nigeria, and Sinai. The group continues to operate with diverse attack modes, targeting various locations and employing both “war of attrition” and “economic warfare” strategies. The latter creates challenges for central governments and fosters discontent, leveraging widespread dissatisfaction for support and recruitment. 

An intriguing aspect of al-Naba 339 is a production mistake that led to the insertion of an audio message from spokesman Abu Umar al-Muhajir, including the phrase “May Allah have mercy on him.” This error created confusion but was rectified promptly through the withdrawal and republication of the magazine with the correction. 

Dabiq Magazine:

Dabiq, an online magazine utilized by the Islamic State for radicalization and recruitment, was first published in July 2014. Its name is derived from the town of Dabiq in northern Syria, mentioned in a hadith about Armageddon, where Muslim and infidel forces are anticipated to face each other. Dabiq expressed strong opposition to various groups, including Christians, Jews, Hindus, Shia Muslims, and the Muslim Brotherhood. 

In September 2016, Dabiq was replaced by another online magazine named Rumiyah, published in multiple languages, including English. The change was speculated to be linked to the loss of the town of Dabiq to a Turkish-led military offensive in October 2016. Rumiyah, referencing a hadith about the fall of Rome, continued the Islamic State’s propaganda and recruitment efforts. 

Rumiyah Magazine:

Rumiyah, an online magazine used by the Islamic State for propaganda and recruitment, was first published in September 2016. Released in various languages, including English, French, German, and others, it succeeded Dabiq and other magazines released until mid-2016. The name “Rumiyah” refers to a hadith predicting the conquest of both Constantinople and Rome by Muslims. 

Each issue of Rumiyah opened with a quote attributed to Abu Hamza al-Muhajir, emphasizing the conquest of Rome. The magazine justified attacks against non-Muslims, providing detailed descriptions of how to carry out knife attacks on smaller groups of people. 

Konstantiniyye Magazine:

Konstantiniyye, a Turkish-language online magazine published by the Islamic State and released by al-Hayat Media Center, was active from June 2015 until 2016. The magazine focused on anti-Turkish messages, targeting Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the Peoples’ Democratic Party, and the PKK (Kurdistan Workers’ Party). 

In late 2016, Konstantiniyye was replaced by Rumiyah, continuing the Islamic State’s propaganda efforts in Turkish. 

In summary, these magazines serve as critical tools for the Islamic State to disseminate its ideology, recruit followers, and propagate its narrative. Analyzing these publications provides insights into the group’s activities, strategies, and potential threats.